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Ed Lucas proposes a not-completely-implausible scenario of Russia and Estonia going to war as an illustration of Europe's many misconceptions of security relations with Moscow.
Consider this scenario. Imagine that Estonian extremists start intimidating local Russians (who amount to around a third of the Estonian population). Russia can easily stoke this covertly, while demanding publicly that Estonia crack down. Then imagine that Russian activists (again, backed, discreetly, by Moscow) set up "self-defence units" which start patrols, and set up checkpoints. When the Estonian authorities try to stop this, the Kremlin complains; Russian military "volunteers" start mustering across the border, proclaiming their intention to defend compatriots from "fascism". The Russian media report this with wild enthusiasm; the Russian authorities say they cannot indefinitely restrain the spontaneous patriotic sentiments of their citizens.
Suppose Estonia requests support under Article IV of the Nato charter. At this point, Russia's cultivation of assets in the West pays off. Germany, Italy and other big European countries tell Estonia to sort out its problems with Russia bilaterally.
The result is a worse split in the Alliance even worse than the one over Iraq. Faced with the West's weakness, the Kremlin ups the odds. Estonia tries to restore order; Russia terms that an intolerable provocation and demands a change of government, immediate changes in the language and citizenship laws, and the establishment of what it calls a "Swiss solution": cantons in which Russians will be allowed "to run their own affairs". To back this up, Russian forces start military manoeuvres.
So what does Estonia do then? America may offer moral support, but is it going to risk a Third World War with Russia to protect Estonia? Such a course of events is not inevitable, or even likely. But it is not as preposterous as it should be. Too many of the ingredients are in place and the Kremlin is perfectly capable of cooking them into a dangerous dish. The big question for Estonia and its friends is what can be done to make sure that never happens.
( http://www.robertamsterdam.com... )
Imagining a Russian Invasion of Estonia (2)
Archived Articles | 05 Nov 2008 | EWR
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Kommentaarid on kirjutatud EWR lugejate poolt. Nende sisu ei pruugi ühtida EWR toimetuse seisukohtadega.
100 years ago on October 22 it was reported that "Six hundred Russian infantry battalions, with artillery and cavalry, crossed the Persian frontier into the province of Azerbaijan with the intention of occupying the city of Tabriz in a move by Russia to protect Russian subjects and Russian trade in Persia." Sound familiar?
Give me a break. Estonian extremists? Have you folks seen Soviet Story? What do you call the NKVD torturers who abused thousands of Estonian women and men during the occupation years? We Estonians have been quietly minding our business in Estonia for thousands of years and it is the Crips and the Bloods, so to speak, who come and torment us. It's as simple as that. Estonian extremists my gluteus maximus. When have Estonians ever abused Russians anywhere? And Eesti Elu just prints these pipe dreams? A scenario with Estonia responsible for its own demise? Why not just reprint the stuff that Pravda prints? The next thing you know you will be suggesting that the Eloi in "The Time Machine" by H.G. Wells are somehow guilty of the fact that the Morlocks come and abduct them and feast on them.
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