Good news about global growth risks pushing interest rates up and politicians’ appetite for reform down

The Economist Jan 4th 2014 | From the print edition
ALMOST every year since the end of the financial crisis has started with rosy expectations among American forecasters, and this one is no different. Stockmarkets are buoyant, consumer confidence is improving, and economic seers are raising their growth forecasts for 2014. America’s S&P 500 share index is at a record high, after rising 30% in 2013—the biggest annual gain in almost two decades. Powered by America, global growth of close to 4%, on a purchasing-power-parity basis, seems possible. That would be nearly a full percentage point faster than 2013, and the best showing for several years.

Yet amid the new-year cheer, it is worth remembering that almost every year since the financial crisis upbeat expectations have been disappointed. The biggest danger this time round is the optimism itself.

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