A Ten Year Forecast: Russia’s Decline, Central Europe’s Ascent
Arvamus 06 Dec 2010  EWR
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Edward Lucas, Central Europe Digest

In a thought-provoking forecast, CEPA Senior Fellow Edward Lucas anticipates Russia’s palpable decline by 2020, having fallen behind Brazil, India and China. Meanwhile, Central Europe will be on the ascent, with the three Baltic States “overtaking the sluggish, debt-ridden economies of Southern Europe.”

What will Central Europe look like in 2020? For starters, NATO will be weaker. The war in Afghanistan was a big test for the alliance. If it cannot fight missions in faraway countries, it is not worth the money. NATO’s European members have largely failed that test – a failure much bigger than in Iraq. That war could be blamed on George W. Bush’s recklessness and the incompetence of Donald Rumsfeld’s Pentagon. Even in America, the Iraq War was divisive.

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